Decision-grade dynamic systems intelligence
for financial institutions.
Trex Climate is our inaugural capability, delivering non-linear energy transition and extreme weather insights to strengthen resilience and
reveal opportunities.
01
Our TPS Scenarios capture a range of plausible, yet extreme, near to mid-term assumptions, while remaining flexible enough to support longer-term regulatory analysis. Use them to:
Reveal disorderly transition risks before markets price them
Expose non-linear shocks missed by standard scenarios
Strengthen model robustness under extreme but plausible conditions
Translate complexity into decision-useful portfolio insights
Enable defensible, regulator-ready stress testing
02
Quantify how climate transition and physical shocks reshape regional GDP, growth and economic structure across scenarios, and how they flow through to portfolios.
Quantify GDP and productivity shifts across scenarios
Detect structural winners and losers at regional level
Stress-test exposure against macro-driven repricing
Anchor sector and company analysis in macro-validated economic impact
03
Physical hazard feedback loops are integrated within ‘top-down’ energy transition modelling, complemented by bottom-up asset-level geospatial data capturing tail risks, compounding shocks and tipping points.
WHY TREX
Most climate scenarios used by investors fail to capture real-world complexity, volatility & uncertainty. Trex reveals the full picture
CURRENT SCENARIOS
Linear analysis which is overly simplistic and provides investors with a dangerous false certainty:
close
Transition Risks Misleading
Scenarios that use carbon prices as a proxy for risk don’t capture the diverse range of drivers behind the low-carbon transition, like policies, technological advancements, and geopolitical shifts
close
Transition Opportunities Missed
Scenarios based on emissions ignore the significant impact of changing consumer behaviour and market dynamics on sector and firm-level growth prospects
close
Tipping Points Ignored
Sudden, irreversible shifts in energy markets or climate systems are not accounted for, yet these events can dramatically reshape the investment landscape
close
Physical Tail Risks Overlooked
Impacts of extreme weather events are frequently overlooked with portfolios exposed to high-impact, low-probability 'tail risks'
Trex scenarios help you build portfolios resilient to extreme weather events and positioned to manage both downside & upside transition risks:
check
Decision-Useful Narratives
Choose plausible, near-term narratives designed by the experts at Trex to reflect real-world dynamics impacting investments, such as policy shifts and technological innovation
check
Fit-for-Purpose Models
Understand the economic and financial impacts of feedback loops, tipping points, and systemic risks & opportunities through Trex's cutting-edge non-linear model suite
check
Credible, Reliable Analysis
Act on scenario insights you can trust, developed by Trex's world-leading academics and built on decades of peer-reviewed methodologies
check
Comprehensive Data
Benefit from scenario data that is methodologically consistent at both macroeconomic and position-level: 'top-down' and 'bottom-up'
RESEARCH & REPORTS
Globally renowned systems thinkers
Originating from the University of Exeter, we’ve been a leading voice in the field of systems thinking and non-linear modeling for several decades. Read a selection of our collaborative insights on climate and transition scenarios for investors here.
